Greenlight's Q4 Letter →
For the year Greenlight returned 2.9%, 2.7%, and 1.9% across their various funds. They have annualized 20% net of fees since inception. In the letter he discusses the European crises, some of his short positions (FSLR and GMCR) and his position that he shares with Kyle Bass on the weakening of the Japanese Yen. He also goes on to discuss Dell and Xerox is some detail. Enjoy.
The New Yorker discusses why volatility sucks →
S&P Forecasted vs. Actual Returns
Looks like forecasters are a) wrong; and b) timidly so.
A link to a post on Seekingalpha about shorting... →
Further discussion of the VXX trade, contango, and roll yield.
But of Course There Is No Free Lunch! (And one...
If something is too good to be true, it usually is. Or look around the table when you’re playing cards. If you don’t know who the sucker is, it’s probably you! I have one important point to make about volatility and options. Options and futures decay over time. When you buy an option, it has an expiration date. The closer you get to the date, the less valuable the option,...
VXX - Just short it! Right?
So is the punchline we should simply short the Vix, a complicated, convoluted product that has the tendency to trade down? I asked two of my friends about this. The first said, “yes, you can short it, but occasionally you will get your face ripped off”. The other laughed at me and said, “go right ahead, if it is such a sure thing, I’m sure the market makers and other...
John Paulson's Q3 Newsletter →